Most of the football data books I’ve read are written by at least one part removed. A journalist sitting with the analysts, translating, for example. Ian Graham ran Liverpool’s research department for a decade, so this is the analyst writing it up himself, and it’s much better for that.
The recruitment chapters are the strongest. Graham frames a transfer the way a professional gambler frames a bet: buy when the fee is below what the player will actually contribute, sell when someone offers more than that. Brentford are the worked example, cycling out successful players every summer with no sentimentality about who won them promotion. Ollie Watkins came in for around £2m and left for £28m; one example of dozens.
A number that stuck with me is that of all the €10m-plus transfers into the Premier League between 1992 and 2021, nearly half failed to start even half their new club’s games in the following two years. Graham’s argument is that this is rarely a verdict on the player. The club simply bought the wrong thing then stopped using it.
He’s good on his own failures, too. The Transfer Committee years come across as a long argument in which first-choice targets slipped away and fifth choices arrived to be used grudgingly. A decade of models, and the miss he keeps returning to is Kaoru Mitoma, who rated above Premier League average while playing in Japan and went to Brighton instead.